First analysis and thoughts | Sam

What are the steps to make a part?

HandmadePartly automatedAutomated (but slow)

Where does the money go?

Carbon fiber cost is spread across material, labor, machine time, curing, QA, and scrap risk. The biggest cost areas: material, manual layup, curing, QA, machining, and scrap.

How much of the cost is manual labor?

Manual labor is one of the largest controllable cost and time drivers. From the analysis: manual steps are 50–75% of production time and 30–50% of final part cost. Fully removed, final part cost could theoretically fall by 30–50%, before robotics, R&D, facilities, maintenance, and automation overhead.

What happens if machines work 5× faster?

If machines perform manual steps 5× faster than humans, and manual labor is roughly 60% of total production time, total cycle time falls by about 48–50%, roughly 1.9× higher throughput.

Calculator

Result

~48%
Cycle time reduction
~1.9×
Throughput increase
Current timeline100%
Automated timeline52%
Manual work (compresses)Cure / machine time (partly fixed)

Glass fiber or carbon fiber?

Glass fiber is cheaper and good enough for many applications. Carbon fiber is more expensive, but wins when weight, stiffness, strength-to-weight, fatigue, or dimensional stability matter. We can consider starting with glass fiber, and move to carbon where the performance justifies the cost.

Glass fiber / GFRP

Carbon fiber / CFRP

Where is carbon fiber produced today?

Carbon fiber production is spread across aerospace, wind energy, hydrogen pressure vessels, automotive, sporting goods, and industrial applications, split by end use, producer, and buyer.

Note: carbon fiber imported from China to the US likely carries tariffs of roughly 35% (0% normal duty + 25% China tariff + 10% possible temporary surcharge).

What is still made by hand?

← Already automatedStill manual → High opportunity ↑↓ Low opportunity
High opportunityMediumLower

What does the $20B carbon fiber market look like?

What does the ~$70B glass fiber market look like?

What unlocks if carbon fiber gets 50% cheaper?

Carbon advantage
Buying region
Material replaced
Post-reduction cost
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